A Method for Setting the Size of Plant Conservation Target Areas

Abstract: Realistic time frames in which management decisions are made often preclude the completion of the detailed analyses necessary for conservation planning. Under these circumstances, efficient alternatives may assist in approximating the results of more thorough studies that require extensive resources and time. We outline a set of concepts and formulas that may be used in lieu of detailed population viability analyses and habitat modeling exercises to estimate the protected areas required to provide desirable conservation outcomes for a suite of threatened plant species. We used expert judgment of parameters and assessment of a population size that results in a specified quasiextinction risk based on simple dynamic models. The area required to support a population of this size is adjusted to take into account deterministic and stochastic human influences, including small-scale disturbance, deterministic trends such as habitat loss, and changes in population density through processes such as predation and competition. We set targets for different disturbance regimes and geographic regions. We applied our methods to Banksia cuneata, Boronia keysii, and Parsonsia dorrigoensis, resulting in target areas for conservation of 1102, 733, and 1084 ha, respectively. These results provide guidance on target areas and priorities for conservation strategies.     

Total versus urban: Well-to-wheels assessment of criteria pollutant emissions from various vehicle/fuel systems

The potential impact on the environment of alternative vehicle/fuel systems needs to be evaluated, especially with respect to human health effects resulting from air pollution. We used the Greenhouse gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy use in Transportation (GREET) model to examine the well-to-wheels (WTW) emissions of five criteria pollutants (VOCs, NO_x, PM₁₀, PM_2.5, and CO) for nine vehicle/fuel systems: (1) conventional gasoline vehicles; (2) conventional diesel vehicles; (3) ethanol (E85) flexible-fuel vehicles (FFVs) fueled with corn-based ethanol; (4) E85 FFVs fueled with switchgrass-based ethanol; (5) gasoline hybrid vehicles (HEVs); (6) diesel HEVs; (7) electric vehicles (EVs) charged using the average U.S. generation mix; (8) EVs charged using the California generation mix; and (9) hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (FCVs). Pollutant emissions were separated into total and urban emissions to differentiate the locations of emissions, and emissions were presented by sources. The results show that WTW emissions of the vehicle/fuel systems differ significantly, in terms of not only the amounts but also with respect to locations and sources, both of which are important in evaluating alternative vehicle/fuel systems. E85 FFVs increase total emissions but reduce urban emissions by up to 30% because the majority of emissions are released from farming equipment, fertilizer manufacture, and ethanol plants, all of which are located in rural areas. HEVs reduce both total and urban emissions because of the improved fuel economy and lower emissions. While EVs significantly reduce total emissions of VOCs and CO by more than 90%, they increase total emissions of PM₁₀ and PM_2.5 by 35–325%. However, EVs can reduce urban PM emissions by more than 40%. FCVs reduce VOCs, CO, and NO_x emissions, but they increase both total and urban PM emissions because of the high process emissions that occur during hydrogen production. This study emphasizes the importance of specifying a thorough life-cycle emissions inventory that can account for both the locations and sources of the emissions to assist in achieving a fair comparison of alternative vehicle/fuel options in terms of their environmental impacts.     

Approximating SWAT Model Using Artificial Neural Network and Support Vector Machine1

Abstract: With the popularity of complex, physically based hydrologic models, the time consumed for running these models is increasing substantially. Using surrogate models to approximate the computationally intensive models is a promising method to save huge amounts of time for parameter estimation. In this study, two learning machines [Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and support vector machine (SVM)] were evaluated and compared for approximating the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. These two learning machines were tested in two watersheds (Little River Experimental Watershed in Georgia and Mahatango Creek Experimental Watershed in Pennsylvania). The results show that SVM in general exhibited better generalization ability than ANN. In order to effectively and efficiently apply SVM to approximate SWAT, the effect of cross‐validation schemes, parameter dimensions, and training sample sizes on the performance of SVM was evaluated and discussed. It is suggested that 3‐fold cross‐validation is adequate for training the SVM model, and reducing the parameter dimension through determining the parameter values from field data and the sensitivity analysis is an effective means of improving the performance of SVM. As far as the training sample size, it is difficult to determine the appropriate number of samples for training SVM based on the test results obtained in this study. Simple examples were used to illustrate the potential applicability of combining the SVM model with uncertainty analysis algorithm to save efforts for parameter uncertainty of SWAT. In the future, evaluating the applicability of SVM for approximating SWAT in other watersheds and combining SVM with different parameter uncertainty analysis algorithms and evolutionary optimization algorithms deserve further research.     

Extinction and Colonization of Birds on Habitat Islands

Abstract: We used point-count and transect surveys to estimate the distribution and abundance of eight scrub-breeding bird species in 34 habitat fragments and the urban matrix in southern California. We then calculated local extinction and colonization rates by comparing our data with surveys conducted in 1987. We classified factors that influence extinction and colonization rates into two types: (1) extrinsic factors, which are characteristics of the habitat fragments such as area, age, and isolation and (2) intrinsic factors, which are characteristics of the species that inhabit fragments, such as body size and population density. Over the past decade, at least one species went locally extinct in over 50% of the fragments, and local extinctions were almost twice as common as colonizations. Fragment size and, to a lesser extent, fragment age were the most important extrinsic factors determining extinction and colonization. Density indices of scrub birds were the most important intrinsic factors determining extinction rates, predicting the number of sites occupied, the probability of local extinction, relative area requirements, and time to local extinction.     

Toxicity and Mutagenicity of Component Classes of Oils Isolated from Soils at Petroleum- and Creosote-Contaminated Sites

Abstract

Microtox and Ames bioassays were employed to assess acute toxicity and mutagenicity of water soluble components of class–fractionated oils extracted from one creosote–and four petroleum–contaminated soils. Microtox results revealed that potential acute toxicity resides mainly in the polar class fractions at three sites and indicated potential synergistic and antagonistic effects between compounds in the total extracts at two sites. Ames Salmonella/microsome testing indicated that the polyaromatic fractions at two sites exhibit weak mutagenicity with enzymatic activation, while the polar fractions at two sites are weakly mutagenic without enzyme activation. Further chemical characterization of the polar and polyaromatic fractions is required to fully assess the potential of health and ecological risks at the creosote–and petroleum–contaminated sites exhibiting these toxic responses.     

Monitoring the formation of structures and patterns during initial development of an artificial catchment

The objective of this paper is to present observations, results from monitoring measurements, and preliminary conclusions about the development of patterns and structures during the first 5 years of development of an artificial catchment starting from point zero. We discuss the high relevance of initial system traits and external events for the system development and draw conclusions for further research. These investigations as part of a Collaborative Research Center, aim to disentangle and understand the feedback mechanisms and interrelationships of processes and their co-development with spatial and temporal structures and patterns by studying an initial, probably less complex ecosystem. Therefore, intensive measurements were carried out in the catchment with regard to the development of surface structures, hydrological patterns, vegetation dynamics, water chemistry, and element budgets. During the first 5 years, considerable changes within the catchment were observed. Both internal and external factors could be identified as driving forces for the formation of structures and patterns in the artificial catchment. Initial structures formed by the construction process and initial substrate characteristics were decisive for the distribution and flow of water. External factors like episodic events triggered erosion and dissection during this initial phase, promoted by the low vegetation cover, and the unconsolidated sandy substrate. The transformation of the initial geosystem into areas with evolving terrestrial or aquatic characteristics and from a very episodic to a more permanent stream network and discharge, together with the observed vegetation dynamics increased site diversity and heterogeneity with respect to water and nutrient availability and transformation processes compared with the more homogenous conditions at point zero. The processes and feedback mechanisms in the initial development of a new landscape may deviate in rates, intensity, and dominance from those known from mature ecosystems. It is therefore crucial to understand these early phases of ecosystem development and to disentangle the increasingly complex interactions between the evolving terrestrial and aquatic, biotic, and abiotic compartments of the system. Long-term monitoring of initial ecosystems may provide important data and parameters on processes and the crucial role of spatial and temporal structures and patterns to solve these problems. Artificially created catchments could be a suitable tool to study these initial developments at the landscape scale under known, designed, and defined boundary conditions.     

Transport impacts on atmosphere and climate: Land transport

Emissions from land transport, and from road transport in particular, have significant impacts on the atmosphere and on climate change. This assessment gives an overview of past, present and future emissions from land transport, of their impacts on the atmospheric composition and air quality, on human health and climate change and on options for mitigation.In the past vehicle exhaust emission control has successfully reduced emissions of nitrogen oxides, carbon monoxide, volatile organic compounds and particulate matter. This contributed to improved air quality and reduced health impacts in industrialised countries. In developing countries however, pollutant emissions have been growing strongly, adversely affecting many populations. In addition, ozone and particulate matter change the radiative balance and hence contribute to global warming on shorter time scales. Latest knowledge on the magnitude of land transport's impact on global warming is reviewed here.In the future, road transport's emissions of these pollutants are expected to stagnate and then decrease globally. This will then help to improve the air quality notably in developing countries. On the contrary, emissions of carbon dioxide and of halocarbons from mobile air conditioners have been globally increasing and are further expected to grow. Consequently, road transport's impact on climate is gaining in importance. The expected efficiency improvements of vehicles and the introduction of biofuels will not be sufficient to offset the expected strong growth in both, passenger and freight transportation. Technical measures could offer a significant reduction potential, but strong interventions would be needed as markets do not initiate the necessary changes. Further reductions would need a resolute expansion of low-carbon fuels, a tripling of vehicle fuel efficiency and a stagnation in absolute transport volumes. Land transport will remain a key sector in climate change mitigation during the next decades.     

Pre- and post-mating sexual selection both favor large males in a rainbowfish

Sexual selection can act through female choice and male–male competition. Although both processes can act simultaneously, they are typically studied independently. Here, we adopt a more integrated approach to studying sexual selection by incorporating measures of both processes using the western rainbowfish Melanotaenia australis, a freshwater fish endemic to northwestern Australia. We assessed male–male competition and female choice separately while measuring the performance of individual males under both processes and used paternity analyses to estimate male reproductive success. We then related the performance of males during each of these stages to their phenotype, which was described using linear measures of size and color pattern traits, and spectrographic measures of the reflectance of color patches. We found that female choice favored relatively large males and that these preferences were consistent within individual females and repeatable between different females. Larger males were also more dominant in the competition trials and sired the majority of offspring produced when females spawned. There was little evidence to suggest that sexual selection acted on male color patterns either via female choice or male contest competition or during subsequent post-mating episodes of sexual selection. We conclude, therefore, that male–male competition and female choice act concordantly to favor relatively large males and that these patterns of mating success are reflected during post-mating episodes of sexual selection.